NFC Championship Game | Bucs @ Packers
Packers in Another NFC Championship Game
There are a number of different ways to look at Sunday’s NFC championship game. It is a battle of Hall of Fame quarterbacks – Tom Brady versus Aaron Rodgers. It is a rematch of an earlier regular season game.
Brady has 31 playoff victories in his career. Rodgers has been to four previous NFC title games, but this is his first in Green Bay. The Bucs and Packers are two of the highest-scoring offenses in the NFL, but this is an outdoor playoff game in January.
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Game: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-5, 10-8 ATS) at Green Bay Packers (14-3, 11-6 ATS)
When: 3:05 PM ET, Sunday, January 24, 2021
Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Current Line: GB -3 Total: 51.5
TV Coverage: FOX
Normally, outdoor playoff games and Unders don’t go together when betting football. This Sunday’s game in Green Bay might not follow that trend.
The Bucs have done extremely well on the road this season. In fact, Tampa Bay has won each of its last seven road games and has won those games by an average margin of 16 points. In each of their past six games, the Bucs have scored at least 30 points and went over 40 twice.
It’s a similar story with the Packers. In their last eight games, Green Bay has tallied at least 30 points in all but one game. They put up 24 in a win over Carolina on Dec. 19.
There is much talk of the Tampa Bay defense, which ranked No. 1 against the run during the 2020 regular season. There was a lot of talk about the Rams defense prior to last week’s Rams-Packers matchup too.
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Los Angeles had the No. 1 defense in the league holding opponents to just 281.9 yard of total offense and 18.5 points per game. Rodgers and Green Bay torched the NFL’s best defense for 484 yards and 32 points. There is no question the Packers can do it again on Sunday.
Rodgers would like nothing more than to make up for his worst performance of the season back in Week 5. That was the 38-10 loss to Tampa Bay. Rodgers threw a pick-six at the beginning of what would turn out to be a 28-point Tampa Bay second quarter.
The Green Bay quarterback does well at home where his record as a starter is 59-9-1 since 2010. Rodgers threw for 48 touchdowns this season and threw at least one scoring pass in every game but one – the loss to Tampa Bay.
Rodgers will undoubtedly be geared up to avenge the earlier loss to the Bucs. With a Packers offense that averaged 31.8 points a game this season squaring off against a Bucs offense that 30.7 per game, this Total should climb into the 50s.
Regardless of the game being played outdoors in January (there is snow in the forecast but only for Sunday morning), these two offenses can put up points. This will be Brady’s first game against Rodgers and the Packers as a member of the Bucs, but four of the last six Bucs-Packers games have seen the Over hit.
This one will too.
NFL Free Pick: OVER 51.5
Our last pick didn’t work out so well, but go take a look. It was a Ravens @ Titans free pick.