March Madness
Basketball Betting Tutorials College Basketball News Gambling Tutorials News Sports Betting News Sports Betting Tutorials

Picking the Right Cinderella in March Madness 2021

Dirty

Last updated on March 20th, 2024 at 07:40 pm

March Madness

March Madness is Here After a Year Delay

March Madness is back in 2021, and we are ready. If you haven’t already, you are likely still considering which Cinderella to pick in a giant upset in the upcoming NCAA tournament. It’s not easy, but it seems like there is always at least one shocker in March Madness.

In an average year, there are typically about 12 upsets in the NCAA tournament. An upset would be a team beating a team that is at least two seeds above it. A No. 6 beating a No. 11, for example, is an upset. A ninth-seed beating an eighth-seed is not.

A Cinderella is a team outside of a power conference that has not been ranked in the AP Top 15.

So, how do you get those upsets right? Whether you are picking a bracket or simply wagering on an underdog on the moneyline, here are your best bets on a Cinderella in March Madness 2021.

OFFSHORE SPORTSBOOKS WILL ALWAYS BE AROUND

The Stats That Matter

In short, the statistics that matter most for Cinderellas are Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Efficiency, Effective Defensive Field Goal Percentage, Offensive and Defensive Turnover Percentage, and Three-Point Defense Percentage. 

The teams that upset higher seeds are typically those that display both high offensive and defensive efficiency ratings, don’t turn the ball over on offense, force turnovers on defense, and defend the perimeter. Keep this in mind when betting NCAA basketball totals.

With that in mind, there are a handful of teams that are more likely to pull off first- and even second-round upsets. One is West Region No. 12 seed UC-Santa Barbara. The Gauchos went 22-4 this season and won the Big West Conference regular season and conference titles. 

UCSB ranks 31st in both offensive and defensive efficiency and they hold opponents to an average of 62.8 points per game. The Gauchos will take on fifth seed Creighton which lost three of its last six games, including a huge blowout loss to Georgetown in the Big Ten championship game.

Other March Madness 2021 Cinderellas to Watch

In the East Region, there is a Cinderella in waiting at the No. 14 seed. Abilene Christian will take on No. 3 Texas in its first-round game. The Wildcats are primed for an upset. They are 12th in the country in opponent effective field goal percentage. That allows them to lead the nation in defensive efficiency.

That’s right. Abilene Christian is the most efficient defensive team in the nation. They gave up just 60.5 points per game and finished the regular season 23-4. At the very least, bettors should consider taking the 7.5 points they are getting as an underdog to the Longhorns. 

Others to watch include the winner of the First Four game between Drake and Wichita State. The Bulldogs suffered a few injuries late in the season that hurt them down the stretch. Even so, Drake is one of the more efficient offenses in the country ranking at No. 6. The winner of the play-in game will face No. 6 USC.

No. 5 and No. 6 seeds suffer the most first-round upsets of any other seeds in the tournament. Typically, their opponents – 11th and 12th seeds – are either very good mid-major champions or power conference teams that battled through a difficult schedule which has prepared them for March Madness.