How to Bet Correlated Parlays

Correlated Parlays are a Different Animal and Requires a Good Strategy

Learn how to bet correlated parlays and you can increase your bankroll. Parlays are hard enough to hit as it is, but with enough data and learning how to correlate numbers to find a few parlays can be good for you bankroll. Correlated parlays are not available every week in football and every day in other sports. So be patient.

Key Points of Correlated Parlays

– Understanding how correlated parlays work is the first step to success.

– You can bet correlated parlays and earn long-term profits.

How to Bet Correlated Parlays

For sports bettors, correlated parlays are the ideal betting concept because they typically have a positive long-term outlook. In other words, if you consistently placed these bets, you would guarantee a profit.

Correlated parlays are like a machine that always prints money. Finding and betting on these parlays is very challenging. Usually, anything that seems too good to be true is. Plus, sportsbooks are a lot smarter these days. It’s the evolution of sports betting.

Let’s first define what we’re talking about. What is a correlated parlay and how do we bet correlated parlays?

What Is a Correlated Parlay?

As a sports bettor, we should understand that a parlay is a group of bets wagered as a single bet. Each of the individual bets must win in order for the parlay to win.

The idea behind a correlated parlay is to group bets that go together. If one of the things happens, then the other is likely to occur. An example better explains this concept.

Take an NFL game, for example. Let’s say you have the Kansas City Chiefs favored over the Houston Texans. The Chiefs are a 15-point favorite. The game total is set at 40. This doesn’t happen often, which is one reason why football betting is so hard.

If you are betting the Chiefs to cover, it would make sense that the game total goes Over. There is a better than average chance if Kansas City covers the spread they are going to score a bunch of points in the process.

A smart bettor could parlay the two bets – Chiefs -15, Over 40 – and win a higher profit than if the two were wagered separately. That’s how you bet correlated parlays.

EDITOR’S CHOICE: HOW THE BETTING PUBLIC AFFECTS BETTING STRATEGY

Bet Correlated Parlays for Long-Term Profits

To bet correlated parlays and ensure long-term profits, you have to understand some basic math. There are four possible outcomes when you wager on a two-event parlay.

• Win both
• Lose first, Win second
• Lose second, Win first
• Lose both

The probability of winning the parlay is 25 percent (1 in 4). If the odds on either side of a point spread bet are set properly, there should be an even chance of a win or loss. That means each outcome here has a 25 percent probability.

Accordingly, to show a profit here you would need to get odds of +300 (3/1) or better to break even. Two-team parlays usually payout at +260 (2.6/1) and are usually not a great bet because you lose money in the long-term.

However, when you bet correlated parlays, the percentages change. Let’s say in our Chiefs-Texans example there is still an even chance of ending up on either side of the spread. However, if the favorite covers, the total is much more likely to go Over.

Kansas City would have to cover by 16 points. There aren’t that many scores where the Chiefs win by 16 and the total goes Under. As a result, we might find that there is an 80 percent chance the game total goes Over. Make sure you have a top-tier sportsbook to find the best lines.

Overall, this would mean that there is a 40 percent chance that the game will go Over and the favorite will cover. That means that 40 percent of the time you parlay the favorite and the over you are going to win.

If you made a $100 parlay bet 10 times, you would expect to win four of them. The total profit on those wins would be $1040 ($260 x 4). The six losses would cost you a total of $600. That means your profit would be $440.

College basketball has started. You can win betting on college basketball too!

Sportsbooks Are Smart

Bet correlated parlay! It all sounds great, but the issue is that sports books make it very difficult to place bets like this because they really hate losing money.

Numerous online sportsbooks have gone as far as to completely forbid parlaying two events in the same game. Others will allow you to parlay one game, but if the bet turns out to be correlated, they will reject it either when it is placed or even after the game has ended.

Most sportsbooks do not allow you to bet correlated parlays on MLB and NHL games. The scoring margins are too tight. Even in the NFL, some correlated parlays are not permitted, especially those around key numbers. Make sure you have an online wagering portal that allows you to bet on what you want.

Bet Correlated Parlays

Although it’s rare to find directly correlated parlays these days that you can bet on, the concepts behind them can still be used. You can find circumstances that can have a similar fundamental impact.

For example, you might find an appealing situation where two different games are closely related. The best illustration involves two NFL teams playing their final games of the regular season. You can also make money predicting football line moves, but that’s a whole separate discussion.

One of those teams has a playoff spot on the line. Let’s say that the Jets play at 4:30 and the Patriots play at 1:00. If the Patriots win, they receive the playoff berth and the Jets are eliminated.

However, if the Patriots lose, the Jets can clinch the playoff spot with a victory. The Jets won’t play hard and may not even use their starters if the Patriots win. As a result, the Jets might find it more difficult to cover.

If the Patriots lose, the Jets would be more motivated to play to capture that playoff spot. In that case, the Jets would seemingly have a greater chance of covering the spread.

As you can see, there are situations here where you could bet correlated parlays with great success.